Florida International

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	111.0
Current RPI:	111
Expected SOS:	135
Current SOS:	135
Current Record:	18-14
Expected Record:	18-14
Current Conf Record:	13-10
Expected Conf Record:	13-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-3
Current OOC Record:	5-4
Expected OOC Record:	5-4
Expected OOC RPI:	84
Expected OOC SOS:	96

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-14	111.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida International.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Boston College (113.0)	ACC	A	84-70	L	0%
11-17	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	H	60-69	L	0%
11-24	Coastal Carolina (259.0)	BSth	A	77-87	W	100%
11-29	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	H	80-61	W	100%
12-1	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	H	68-79	L	0%
12-9	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	A	79-82	W	100%
12-13	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	A	76-73	L	0%
12-19	Louisville (3.0)	BE	A	79-55	L	0%
12-22	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	A	45-48	W	100%
12-27	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	A	76-63	L	0%
12-29	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	A	69-52	L	0%
1-2	Florida A&M (331.0)	MEAC	H	88-72	W	100%
1-5	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	H	75-70	W	100%
1-7	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	H	74-72	W	100%
1-10	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	A	64-66	W	100%
1-12	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	A	88-76	L	0%
1-17	North Texas (247.0)	SB	H	70-64	W	100%
1-19	Troy (279.0)	SB	H	61-55	W	100%
1-24	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	A	75-80	W	100%
1-27	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	A	60-58	L	0%
1-31	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	H	64-66	L	0%
2-2	Louisiana Monroe (305.0)	SB	H	76-73	W	100%
2-7	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	H	84-65	W	100%
2-9	North Texas (247.0)	SB	A	77-67	L	0%
2-14	Troy (279.0)	SB	A	69-61	L	0%
2-16	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	H	87-82	W	100%
2-21	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	H	65-52	W	100%
2-28	Louisiana Monroe (305.0)	SB	A	58-67	W	100%
3-2	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	A	77-60	L	0%
3-9	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	A	54-69	W	100%
3-10	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	N	57-61	W	100%
3-11	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	N	63-65	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida International's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Florida International's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Florida International.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Florida International	SB	26.61	26.61	60.00	60.00	5.32	5.32
Western Kentucky	SB	5.90	5.90	54.84	54.84	0.57	0.57
Middle Tennessee	SB	5.78	5.78	86.67	86.67	4.24	4.24
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	5.70	5.70	53.57	53.57	0.41	0.41
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	4.34	4.34	40.00	40.00	-0.87	-0.87
Arkansas St.	SB	4.30	4.30	64.29	64.29	1.23	1.23
Troy	SB	4.29	4.29	35.48	35.48	-1.25	-1.25
Florida Atlantic	SB	4.28	4.28	41.38	41.38	-0.74	-0.74
South Alabama	SB	4.24	4.24	53.85	53.85	0.33	0.33
Louisiana Monroe	SB	4.24	4.24	16.00	16.00	-2.88	-2.88
North Texas	SB	4.23	4.23	35.71	35.71	-1.21	-1.21
Stetson	ASun	1.79	1.79	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Texas Southern	SWAC	1.68	1.68	56.67	56.67	0.22	0.22
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.64	1.64	38.71	38.71	-0.37	-0.37
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	1.64	1.64	67.74	67.74	0.58	0.58
Florida A&M	MEAC	1.64	1.64	21.43	21.43	-0.94	-0.94
Louisville	BE	1.63	1.63	84.85	84.85	1.14	1.14
Boston College	ACC	1.56	1.56	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
Coastal Carolina	BSth	1.56	1.56	44.00	44.00	-0.19	-0.19
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	1.56	1.56	84.62	84.62	1.08	1.08
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.26	0.26	80.65	80.65	0.16	0.16
UAB	CUSA	0.23	0.23	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.22	0.22	29.03	29.03	-0.09	-0.09
Lamar	Slnd	0.21	0.21	9.68	9.68	-0.17	-0.17
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.20	0.20	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.18	0.18	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.18	0.18	76.47	76.47	0.09	0.09
Jacksonville	ASun	0.18	0.18	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.15	0.15	62.07	62.07	0.04	0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.13	0.13	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.13	0.13	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.13	0.13	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
Dayton	A10	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Austin Peay	OVC	0.12	0.12	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
IUPUI	Sum	0.12	0.12	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
Murray St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.12	0.12	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.11	0.11	17.86	17.86	-0.07	-0.07
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.10	0.10	67.86	67.86	0.04	0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.10	10.00	10.00	-0.08	-0.08
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.09	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Utah Valley	GWC	0.09	0.09	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.09	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.09	0.09	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	70.37	70.37	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.08	-0.08
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Oakland	Sum	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.07	0.07	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.07	0.07	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Boston University	AE	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Monmouth	NEC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.02	0.02	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.02	0.02	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00